NHL 2022 Stanley Cup playoff chances, projections and probabilities

Welcome to our NHL projections and probabilities page where you will find each team’s probability of advancing through the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup.

The projections are based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the playoffs, which factors in each team’s projected strength, current health, and their playoff path. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). You can read more about GSVA and the model here.

There are two versions of the probabilities. One that is business as usual and based entirely on player value, and another that incorporates how “heavy” each team plays, based on how predictive “heaviness” was over the last decade.

This page will be updated at the conclusion of the final game of the night. Click to expand any chart for a larger view.

All projections and probabilities are rounded to the nearest whole number.


Last updated: May 8, 9:30 AM EST

Classic Odds

Stanley Cup Odds

Teams

Round 1

Round 2

Final Cup

Stanley Cup

99.60%

69.70%

55.30%

34.90%

79.20%

50.30%

35.20%

19.30%

56.60%

31.00%

22.00%

12.40%

83.90%

27.80%

18.80%

9.00%

69.10%

41.40%

16.00%

6.50%

49.40%

31.90%

10.50%

4.30%

69.40%

31.10%

10.00%

3.50%

81.00%

42.60%

10.70%

3.30%

30.90%

17.50%

6.30%

2.50%

20.70%

10.30%

5.40%

2.10%

43.30%

8.40%

2.80%

0.70%

50.60%

19.20%

2.70%

0.60%

30.60%

10.00%

2.40%

0.50%

16.10%

2.50%

1.00%

0.30%

19.10%

6.40%

0.80%

0.10%

0.40%

0.00%

0.00%

0.00%


Heavy Odds

Stanley Cup Odds (Heavy)

Teams

Round 1

Round 2

Final Cup

Stanley Cup

99.40%

61.10%

44.70%

27.50%

73.60%

46.70%

29.50%

15.80%

83.30%

35.30%

24.30%

13.20%

50.60%

26.10%

16.50%

8.90%

53.70%

39.20%

16.20%

8.10%

63.70%

41.40%

18.50%

8.00%

36.30%

24.90%

12.40%

6.00%

26.40%

15.40%

8.80%

4.10%

79.80%

36.10%

9.20%

2.90%

65.90%

22.10%

6.70%

1.80%

49.40%

11.80%

4.20%

1.20%

34.10%

11.50%

3.50%

1.10%

46.30%

19.00%

3.40%

0.80%

16.70%

3.50%

1.50%

0.50%

20.20%

5.80%

0.80%

0.10%

0.60%

0.10%

0.00%

0.00%

(Picture: Sergei Belski/USA Today)

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